000 FXUS64 KBMX 131206 AAA AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 706 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... LOOKING AT THE RADAR THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE STATE. SO FAR...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-APRIL. DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AND CONTINUED PUSH OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 5 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECT TOTALS NEAR THIS HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AMOUNTS FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL BE MORE REALISTIC ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES AND EXPECT RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW THIS THRESHOLD. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF ADDING A MENTION INTO THE HWO. THE CHALLENGE BEYOND TODAY WILL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE BRIEF REPRIEVES FROM THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT TIMING OUT EACH ONE OF THESE BREAKS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. IN ADDITION...A LOT OF THE POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES LATER IN THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNTS RECEIVED TODAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AS THE 500MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THIS INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL JET. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE LOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL KEEP POPS ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LITTLE END IN SIGHT TO THIS WET PATTERN. WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW IN THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART THIS WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE ARE 5-6 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH MULTIPLE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE HWO REGARDING FLOODING JUST YET DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN AND WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL ALSO BE RISES ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST INDICATE LOCATIONS ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE AND BLACK WARRION RIVER BASINS MOVING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THESE VALUES ARE BASED ON FORECAST QPF AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. 05/MA